A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
